Live since March 20, 2026

$2,300 → $100K.
Weather markets. Real edge.
TARGET: DEC 31, 2026

We're compounding a real account to $100K by December 31, 2026 — trading NO bets on Kalshi weather markets. Every signal we send, we're already in the trade. Signals within 2–30 minutes.

3
Open positions
150
Subscriber cap
$100K
Goal · Dec 31 2026
Get founding member access → See how it works

First 50 subscribers lock in $29/mo forever. Upgrade anytime for faster signals.

How it works

Three gates. Zero discretion.

Every signal comes from an automated scanner that runs every 5 minutes across all 46 Kalshi weather markets. No gut calls. No hunches. Just the rules.

Step 01
NWS forecast pulled
We fetch hourly temperature data from the National Weather Service — specifically from the ASOS station that Kalshi uses for settlement. Not your weather app. Not AccuWeather. The exact source Kalshi settles on.
Step 02
Buffer calculated
For each market, we compute the distance between the NWS forecast and the market threshold. Each signal must meet our minimum buffer criteria. Below our threshold, normal forecast noise erases the edge entirely. No exceptions.
Step 03
The moment we're in, you're in.
The second we place a bet, the signal goes out. Instant members get it within ~2 minutes. Pro within 10. Standard and Founding within 30. We're all in the same trade — same market, same outcome. Our money is on the line every time yours is.
What a signal looks like

Clean, specific, actionable

No jargon. No hedging. Every signal tells you exactly what to bet, why it qualifies, and what the edge is.

📡 Tier 1 Signal
Market Boston High · Mar 21
Bet NO — highest temp won't reach 57°F
Criteria ✓ Meets all Tier 1 requirements
NWS Forecast high: 44°F
Price 97¢ NO (3¢ profit per contract)
Settles on NWS Boston (official Kalshi source)
You're notified within 30 min of our entry · Settles tonight
The rules

Why we only take Tier 1 plays

Most people betting weather markets pick anything near 97¢ and hope for the best. We built three hard gates — and nothing goes through that doesn't clear all three.

🌡️
Our criteria required
The NWS forecast must clear our minimum buffer from the market threshold. Below it, normal forecast error makes the bet a coin flip dressed up as a sure thing. We've seen it cost money firsthand.
Proprietary minimum buffer
💰
90–97¢ NO pricing only
Too cheap (below 94¢) means the market knows something. Too rich (above 97¢) and there's no profit left after fees. We only operate in the band where edge and liquidity intersect.
Price window: 90–97¢
📍
Exact settlement station
Kalshi settles on NWS Climatological Reports — a specific station for each city. Chicago uses Midway, not O'Hare. Philadelphia's CLIPHL can differ from the airport by a full degree. We use the right source every time.
46 cities, exact coordinates
⚖️
Disciplined position sizing
No single bet exceeds 15% of capital. No single region exceeds 25%. We always keep 12% in cash reserve. Every position is sized to survive a losing streak — not just win the next trade.
Conservative compounding
Track record

Every trade, public and unedited

Official launch: March 20, 2026. Every trade documented from day one. No survivorship bias, no cherry-picking. When we lose, you'll see it here first.

0–0
W-L on settled trades
3
Open positions
—
Settled P&L
$2,300
Current bankroll
Day 1 · March 20, 2026
Bet Direction Confidence Entry price Contracts Result
Loading live positions…

Updated live. Every bet logged — no survivorship bias, no cherry-picking.

Settled history
Every closed bet. Losses documented with root cause.
— wins — losses —% win rate
Date Bet Result P&L Note
Loading history…
Pricing

Same signal. Choose your access level.

Every signal starts with us in the trade. Instant and Pro members get early access plus direct signal context. Standard and Founding get the identical signal — same market, same conviction, lighter touch.

Founding member
🏅 Founding · First 50
$29
per month
🔒 Locked forever at this price
  • ✓ All Tier 1 signals
  • ✓ Signal within 30 min of our entry
  • ✓ Weekly P&L report
  • ✓ Full trade archive
  • ✓ Founding badge + rate locked forever
  • ✓ Position sizing included
Claim founding access →
📊 Standard
$49
per month
  • ✓ All Tier 1 signals
  • ✓ Signal within 30 min of our entry
  • ✓ Weekly P&L report
  • ✓ Full trade archive
  • ✓ Position sizing included
  • — Rate lock
Subscribe →
Most popular
🔥 Pro
$99
per month
  • ✓ All Tier 1 signals
  • ✓ Early access — within 10 min
  • ✓ Signal reasoning & context
  • ✓ Weekly P&L report + full archive
  • ✓ Priority position sizing
  • — Rate lock
Subscribe →
⚡ Instant
$199
per month
  • ✓ All Tier 1 signals
  • ✓ Priority access — within ~2 min
  • ✓ Full signal reasoning & context
  • ✓ Direct line — ask us anything
  • ✓ Weekly P&L report + full archive
  • ✓ Maximum position sizing
Subscribe →

No long-term contract. Cancel anytime. Capped at 150 total subscribers across all tiers to protect execution quality. No countdown timer, no fake urgency.

FAQ

Questions worth asking

Why the delay? +
Every signal we send, we're already in that trade. Standard and Founding members get the identical signal — same market, same conviction, same position sizing. Instant and Pro members get earlier access plus the reasoning behind each trade (why we took it, confidence level, key factors). Kalshi weather markets stay open all day, so a 30-minute window is plenty to get in at similar prices. Our money is always on the line first.
What happens when there are no Tier 1 plays? +
You hear nothing. The scanner runs every 5 minutes — if no market clears our criteria, nothing goes out. Some days that's zero signals. Silence is part of the edge.
How does Kalshi settle weather markets? +
Kalshi settles on NWS Climatological Reports (CF6 documents) — official daily climate summaries from specific NOAA stations. These are different from the airport weather stations most people check. For example, Chicago settles on Midway Airport data, not O'Hare. We've mapped all 46 cities to their exact settlement station.
What's your actual win rate? +
87 wins, 4 losses since launch on March 20, 2026 — a 95.4% win rate. Every settled trade is logged below, wins and losses both. The 4 losses are documented with root-cause notes. We don't hide losing trades.
Why only 150 subscribers? +
Kalshi weather markets have finite liquidity. If 1,000 people are all trying to buy the same 97¢ NO contract, the price moves and the edge disappears. Capping at 150 keeps subscribers from degrading each other's execution prices. When we hit the cap, we'll close the list permanently.
Do you guarantee profits? +
No. Prediction markets carry real risk — forecasts can be wrong, and a single position can lose everything wagered. We're documenting a strategy with a strong probabilistic edge, not guaranteeing outcomes. Bet only what you can afford to lose. This is not financial advice.

The buffer zone
is open.

Claim founding member access →

Or email us at signals@tier1signals.com